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JOHN J. NANCE
UPDATES & ANALYSES


Terrorism's Impact On Aviation - 10/04/01

As with all of us, the days since our contemporary Pearl Harbor of September 11th have been furiously busy in the task of returning to normal life while adjusting to the gathering storm. We are filled as well with questions we didn't expect to have to answer, and answers which have spontaneously found common voice in all of us, the people of the United States, and for that matter, civilized people everywhere: How do we make sure that nothing like September 11th can ever occur again?

With respect to our nation (and for my readers and friends in so many other nations, I in no way mean to exclude you, since we're all family in this struggle against inhumanity) this has been a time of focused fury and careful response. With a rather mighty voice and a near-unanimity of which I'm proud, we've been saying very clearly that in no way are we at war with Islam or other cultures, but that we are - and shall remain - the blood enemies of those who have no regard for human life, and specifically those we esoterically refer to as terrorists.

September 11th was an attack on humanity, and on civilization, and those who would (for anarchistic reasons or reasons of stupidity) react as one rag-tag group of alleged students did in Albuquerque last week in a ridiculous and disloyal "protest" against war, with associated silly invective against the United States government, are not only missing the point, they are aligning themselves with the terrorists whom we seek to eradicate. I agree entirely with President Bush that in this fight, you are either with us, or you are with the terrorists. There is no in-between.

I also agree that this will be a long, difficult, but ultimately successful "war" which the civilized peoples and governments of the world will decisively win.

The defiler of Islam in Afghanistan we refer to these days as Osama bin Laden, and all who follow or support him, are enemies of mankind, and they have stupidly misjudged U.S. citizens as having no stomach for war. One of our philosophers, Jacques Santayana, once said: "He who cannot remember the past is condemned to repeat it," and this is the classic mistake bin Laden has made in failing to do his homework about the fiber of the multi-cultural peoples of the U.S. We may grow complacent from time to time, and on September 11th we clearly were, but we come from a long line of determined people who made their way here for the chance to enjoy shaping their lives as they chose, and going as far as their talents could take them, and those values will not be surrendered. Ever. Admiral Yamamoto, of course, understood that basic mistake in the hours after Pearl Harbor in 1941. Bin Laden, in his anti-Islamic blood feud with civilization and humanity, has failed to grasp that reality, and that failure will prove fatal to him. This isn't bravado or flag waving, it's simply fact. America is incredibly strong in will because its people represent all the people and the cultures and the humane values of the world.

And let's not forget how many Muslims died with Christians and Jews and men and women who were practitioners of so many other religions as the WTC towers collapsed. This was an equal opportunity attack on mankind. Nothing less.

My point is, this is not an American war. This is civilization determined to eliminate a criminal element which has declared war on humanity.

The Aviation Equation

Let me turn my attention here to the rapid rehabilitation of the airline business and all associated aviation operations in the U.S. As ABC's Aviation Analyst, I have, of course, been deeply engaged in helping with our coverage of the attacks, but I've also had the privilege to contribute some deep thinking and long experience to the collective team of thousands of aviation people working on rapid solutions for a problem we never realized we had: the potential of airborne conversion of a passenger-carrying aircraft to a guided hostile cruise missile.

At the invitation of former Virginia Governor Baliles and CCH Issues in Aviation Law and Policy, I've prepared a paper entitled Denial of Access which CCH is issuing this week as a special edition, an outline of this article can be viewed by clicking here. You'll find it gives voice to many of the same recommendations you've heard from the professional pilots of our nation and many members of Congress in the last two weeks, along with some ancillary ideas to solve the specific problems of forever preventing hostile takeover of an airborne aircraft by beefing up both airborne and airport security procedures.

But, is it safe to fly now? That's a legitimate question I get almost hourly, and the answer is a resounding YES! Why? For the following reasons, among others:

Having instantaneously thrust all of us in aviation to a state of high, permanent alert, the terrorist organization responsible for September 11th will not attempt anything similar again. In fact, this is validated by the precision of their planning, and the fact that the one overwhelming common denominator on September 11th was their attempt to minimize variables - in other words, to leave almost nothing to chance. Our airline and security system was abysmally unprepared for any such threat, and therefore they could slip through as they did by merely conforming to our rules (no knife blades over 4", etc), being assured that there was no real chance of being stopped if they stayed within the rules. That means they minimized the opportunities to get caught in our somnambulant system. Today, however, they would be facing not only great difficulty in getting through stringent new procedures and rules, but they would also be stopped by newly reinforced cockpit doors and pilots behind them who are not going to open those doors. In other words, post-September 11th, there would be an unacceptable level of uncertainty that any attack would succeed, and that uncertainty means that making a target out of an airborne airliner is simply not feasible. Besides, they don't believe they need to attack aviation again, because they believe our paranoia will lead us to destroy our system for them. While they work on attacking our water supplies, or trying to create a pandemic with anthrax or some other horrid microorganism, bin Laden and his fellow criminals fully expect us to ruin our own airline industry.

And, if we don't drop our fears and get back in the air, we'll do exactly that!

Virtually all airline pilots in the U.S. have changed their philosophy regarding on-board hostile activity 100%. Regardless of what happens in the cabin, and regardless of any hostile activity, however terrible, against a flight attendant or passenger in flight, the pilots will no longer come out of the cockpit or open the door or in any way be intimidated into granting access to the flight deck. In addition, new procedures unknown to those who are not professional airmen have been devised and will be used instantly against anyone trying to take over a U.S. airliner in flight.

Despite the fact that we still have the bottom-feeding rag-tag "security" companies doing the screening at airports, those poorly trained people have been augmented with highly trained officers and backed up by National Guardsmen, while Congress grapples with the growing chorus of demands to federalize all such airport security. Yes, it can and will be much better in the future, but the level of alert and the level of additional scrutiny right now means that the likelihood of any terrorist to get a weapon on board - or not be caught and detained by a name match or other security or intelligence tip - is extremely low.

As I told Oprah when she was gracious enough to have me back on her show on September 18th, I've already been out flying in the commercial system since September 11th, and I feel it's akin to a patriotic duty to do so if you've some place to go (and your name isn't John Madden - John being the retired football coach and permanently unconvinced patron saint of fearful flyers).

By the way, I think all of us have to remember that other than our common mourning of the losses suffered, any changes for the worse in American life simply hands the enemy a victory. By the same token, we must not make our airline system user-unfriendly while we make it terrorist-proof, or they win there as well.

More Hidden Damage - Private/Corporate Aviation

One element you may not be aware of is what terrible havoc this has wreaked on private aviation. "Oh, well," one fellow sniffed last week when I said this in a phone call. "Getting a bunch of rich guys in their private airplanes back in the air is a pretty low priority." The misguided statement stunned me to silence for a few seconds - a rare occurrence as my close friends can attest - because we live in a nation that in aviation terms is unlike any other, a nation full of opportunity for the average American to learn to fly, own a small plane or a large one, and be able to navigate around this marvelous continent traversing thousands of airports, and buying gasoline, jet fuel, and services from thousands of "FBO's," as they're called. These are the "fixed base operators," many of them mom-and-pop operations at a county airport making very little money but providing great services, and often running a small flying school out of a deep love for aviation and the freedom to fly. Just visit Oshkosh, Wisconsin, for the annual Experimental Aircraft Association's summer convention if you want to see what the backbone of American aviation is: average folk, just like you and me, some of them happily camping under the wing of their tiny single-engine airplane, some in their homebuilt craft, some in more powerful versions they've saved a lifetime to buy. The EAA convention also highlights the fact that our fleet of smaller airplanes is extremely important to businesses and business people nationwide. Whether we're discussing physicians widening their practice through the use of an aircraft, or small companies handling a multi-state area with small planes, it isn't just business jets that make private aviation extremely important as an income-producing business tool. The misguided idea that private aviation in the United States is an elitist enterprise is wrong and absurd. Private and business aviation is, in fact, part of the backbone of America, and I'm very concerned about all aspects of its economic health. That includes those thousands of small FBO's that were all but shuttered for more than ten days while our leaders quite properly tried to sort out how to safely re-fly the system.

Moreover, we should all be concerned about the continued prohibition in certain areas of what we call "VFR" flight - which means flying in clear weather under "Visual Flight Rules," as opposed to Instrument Flight Rules (IFR) where the pilots are always in radio contact and positive radar control. While we must bow to the new world of reality about the potential for terrorist attacks, we must also realize that small airplanes can barely make a dent in a large building, and simply can't be used in any effective manner like our airliners were used on September 11th. By the same token, while we must find ways of denying hostile access to crop dusters, crop duster pilots and companies are yet another major vertebra in the American backbone, especially for agriculture.

Finally, the continuous grounding of business and corporate aviation at certain close-in airports like Teterboro in New Jersey (across from Manhattan) really must be ameliorated by striking a reasonable balance between security and a healthy aviation system. In my view, Teterboro can be safely reopened with a new form of security background screening, as can business aviation at Washington National (the FBO there is now threatened with extinction). Business aviation is a very, very important aspect of American business, and not the luxury it may seem from afar. And, yes, I'll readily admit to bias on this subject, since I fly our own corporate aircraft (a Beech King Air E-90) to and from many of my professional speaking engagements and on book tours, but the truth is that even with my bird (N200RM), its use is 100% business.

One of the messages I'm trying to send here is just this: We must NOT allow emergency security measures to become calcified into permanent new rules and procedures and prohibitions without very careful consideration of whether such new rules are necessary vis a vis the disruption they may cause. Remember, any diminution of American life is a victory for our enemies, and although we must make sacrifices to security in a war, we must not become the enemy's hostages indirectly by becoming hostages of our own fears. There are ways to have the security levels we need, while maintaining our dynamic and healthy style of doing things, and that includes aviation and our access as passengers to airline flights that do not require endless additional hours to board.

Much will be in a state of flux in the next few months, especially in the usability of the airline system and the airports. But we must avoid ineffective, bureaucratic, or "knee-jerk" responses which hurt us and serve no purpose in the greater fight to prevent terrorism. Do you think, for instance, that the murderers of September 11th were going to answer those three bureaucratic and useless questions incorrectly and thus get caught? (Have you packed your bags yourself? Has anyone unknown to you given you anything to carry...etc). These questions may have a place in the grander scheme of things, but they were always a showboating bureaucratic fraud on the flying public in that they sought to reassure without having any hope of being truly effective against a dedicated terrorist.

Thank you, by the way, for writing the many comments and kind e-mails you've sent. I am trying to personally answer each one, but it will take some time.

And, I thank all of you for reading this - from my friends in the UK and Europe and Ireland, to my mates in Australia and Canada, and my readers and friends in Africa and Asia and all over the world - for your heartfelt outpouring of sympathy and appreciation for the U.S., and for understanding the ecumenical nature of it when we say 'God Bless the USA.'

- John J. Nance

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