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JOHN
J. NANCE
UPDATES
& ANALYSES
AS
OF FRIDAY MORNING...
First, I want to thank all of you very sincerely for such
an outpouring of literate and intelligent E-mail responses
to my reflections on ABC.COM on this attack against the
U.S., and the aerospace ramifications and dimensions of
the disaster. I will try to personally reply to all of you,
but since so many of you questioned why I said what I said
regarding the cockpit door's security and the ability to
barricade the pilots inside, I want to collectively answer
that question.
Second, all of you who have addressed the subject are entirely
correct that the cockpit doors of our jetliners can be substantially
beefed up in several ways, despite the vital need to maintain
"blowout" panels (or an adequate method, in the event of
rapid depressurization in the cabin, of instantly relieving
pressure within the cockpit without blowing down bulkheads).
New blowout panels can be designed on the bulkheads themselves
without much expense, and far tougher doors (effectively
impregnable) and locks can be incorporated, and even Kevlar
coatings can be used to make the door bullet proof. BUT...until
the philosophy we have always used as pilots changes affirmatively
to the philosophy and the procedure that airline pilots
must NEVER leave the cockpit when there is any threat in
the back, all the fortress-making changes will be thwarted.
What do I mean by this? Well, without going into too much
detail or providing a roadmap for some future terrorist,
suffice it to say that airline pilots today do not contemplate
reacting to a major threat to our fellow crewmembers in
the back (flight attendants) by "hiding" in the cockpit.
Even though we have only two pilots in most cockpits now
instead of the previous three pilots, one of us would still
almost inevitably be ready to come to the aid of our fellow
crewmembers and passengers if there was an active threat
and a reason to believe we could stop it. Since the cockpit
doors are not strong enough to be impregnable, simply keeping
the door closed does not guarantee the security of the pilots
while in the cockpit, and therefore we have always felt
that we might as well meet a threat head on, rather than
sit there strapped in, waiting to be attacked by anyone
who would burst through the door (which I suspect is what
happened in at least one of our compatriots' cockpits on
Tuesday). Is it procedure to leave the cockpit and go back
to quell any threat or problem? No, but it's human nature,
and to change it we need (1) nearly-impregnable doors, AND
(2) a standing order that if someone or some group is systematically
threatening, hurting, or even killing people in the back,
no pilots may leave the flight deck. Instead, we get the
aircraft on the ground asap and use whatever maneuvers we
can in the meantime to destabilize whatever's happening
in the cabin. We CAN be retrained, but it takes a national
decision to make that change, plus a massive alteration
in the structure of the rules to justify it.
I have also been talking with my airline pilot community
and I can tell you that feeling is running extraordinarily
high that certain additional steps are vital if we're to
adopt "plan B" (in other words, impregnable doors and a
stay-in-the-cockpit philosophy): (1) Arm the flight crew
after specific firearms training equal to what those of
us who are military veterans have received.
The location, type, and chain of possession of whatever
firearm is issued is open, but the weapon should permit
at least one pilot to be able to instantly kill anyone who
enters the cockpit by force, with minimal damage to the
surrounding structure. The firearm use would not be for
the purpose of going to the back and staging a gunfight,
but merely for defending the cockpit, and, thus, the control
of the aircraft. Federal law would need to be altered to
permanently expunge (with what we call in the law "federal
preemption") any potential criminal or civil liability for
use of such a firearm at the direction of the captain or
the surviving second-in-command; (2) Video cameras in the
area aft of the cockpit and in the cabin, permitting the
pilots to examine what's happening without having to stand
at the cockpit door vulnerable to a bullet or a sudden thrust
of a sharp weapon. With a video recorder, such cameras could
provide solid evidence for prosecution of any violator or
would-be violator attempting to enter the cockpit, but more
importantly, such a video system would enable us to positively
identify flight attendants who want to come in, and assure
us that no one is standing there with a gun or a knife.
The added advantage of these changes would be the utter
lack of impact on the ease of usage of the system for passengers,
and the absolute assurance that September 11th could never
be repeated (IE easy access to pilots and cockpit). By no
means is this the only shield in the line of defense to
be erected, but these are sound ideas, and they start with
a required overhaul of the FAA's historical tendency to
distrust the assigned pilots when it comes to possession
and use of defensive firearms and/or mace. It is important
to remember that whatever we do, we must not destroy the
ease of use of our airline system in order to make it 100%
safe, for to do so would simply hand our enemies precisely
the victory they seek.
And please make no mistake about it: We are in a state
of war with this enemy and all who support, house, sympathize,
or finance them, wherever in the world such vermin might
be.
Now, some specific answers, if you will, regarding other
very thoughtful ideas you've sent in:
Because virtually all commercial aircraft are designed
with the cockpit entrance opening into the public area behind,
and any move to alter that physical reality would be prohibitively
expensive, and essentially impossible. Now, the Boeing 747
has a different physiology, and might be tortuously accessible
by pilots through a separate emergency entrance, but this
is not a practical solution.
Also, sealing the pilot compartment can also be a potential
safety problem if it becomes in any way difficult for the
pilots to get out in the event of a crash landing. Worse,
we have worked hard in the past 15 years to build bridges
of communication and coordination between pilots and flight
attendants, and placing an impenetrable barrier (a separate
cockpit not accessible from the cabin) between the two groups
would destroy most of those efforts.
Yes and no. Skymarshals on some flights will probably be
a useful part of the many elements we will need to establish
in a new safety system, but by no means are they a singular
answer. In fact, it may be counterproductive to put skymarshals
on every flight, versus some flights. Presenting a terrorist
organization with random threats instead of certain security
procedures throws a monkeywrench into their planning capabilities.
In other words, to give a sophisticated and well-financed
terrorist organization assurance that any targeted aircraft
will have an armed security officer aboard simply invites
that organization to find a guaranteed way to identify and
neutralize that skymarshal.
Yes, we do have the technology, but it would be ruinously
expensive and it would have one other negative feature that
makes this idea, while thoughtful and clever, not feasible
at this stage in our technological development: Any system
which could be used to lock out the manual controls and
fly the airplane with signals from the ground could also
operate at the wrong time, and perhaps even be operated
by terrorists "hacking" into the system, however invulnerable
it is designed to be. In addition, a multiple failure mode
might allow it to incorrectly "lock out" the aircrew, due
to internal fault. Consider the reliability of Microsoft's
best operating systems and the number of system crashes
we have to tolerate. The specter of an aircrew suddenly
losing the ability to control their jetliner because of
erroneous signals from the ground or an internal fault is
simply unacceptable and essentially inevitable given Murphy's
Law: (Whatever can go wrong, will go wrong and at the worst
possible moment). Finally, only Airbus aircraft with sidestick
controllers are so fully automated that such a system would
be possible without major retrofit.
In other words, someday, maybe, but this is not an immediately
adoptable method.
By the way, some of you have asked whether or not a person
could learn to fly a 757 or 767 well enough to execute such
a murderous crime with nothing more than single engine pilot
training and a lot of time using a Flight Simulator software
program, such as the very sophisticated one Microsoft sells.
In a word, no. Certainly you could learn a lot about the
instruments and their locations and general response of
the systems, but you could never get the "feel" of the control
yoke or the aircraft itself, and the "feel" is critical
to being able to hit a building such as the World Trade
Center at 280 knots. Someone without training and exposure
of some sort to a large jetliner might hit the target, but
the certainty of success is greatly reduced, and the meticulous
planning for this crime against humanity indicates the planners
would not have accepted such a gamble.
Finally, it is sadly true that had September 11th been
cloudy with a low overcast over New York, the attack would
have been postponed, and perhaps the minimal ability of
our existing structure to catch them in time might have
been enhanced.
I will post more in the next few days, but in the meantime,
I wholeheartedly join all Americans in this unique moment
of rage and fury, tempered and focused by the firm resolve
expressed by President Bush. In this extraordinarily historic
moment of mourning equaling or even exceeding the aftermath
of Pearl Harbor, we also celebrate our pride in being Americans,
and in our unique resiliency in spirit and accomplishment
which will guide the intelligent changes we must make to
keep our air transportation system accessible and safe from
mass murderers and other enemies of mankind.
- John J. Nance
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